美國勞工統(tǒng)計局將於週五晚間21:30發(fā)布2024年第一份就業(yè)報告。儘管聯(lián)準會已升息11次，但該報告預(yù)計將凸顯美國經(jīng)濟就業(yè)市場的強勁動能。

就在幾天前，聯(lián)準會主席鮑威爾表示，健康的經(jīng)濟狀況和通膨下降趨勢令他感到鼓舞，但警告稱，在宣布軟著陸之前「我們還有很長的路要走」。 。

經(jīng)濟學家認為，勞動市場仍有足夠動力實現(xiàn)軟著陸：根據(jù)外媒調(diào)查的一致預(yù)期，1月新增就業(yè)人數(shù)預(yù)計將達到17.65萬人，失業(yè)率可能從3.7%小幅上升至3.8%。 ，但連續(xù)24個月維持在4%以下。

不過，週四和週五仍有大量勞動力市場數(shù)據(jù)需要詳細解讀，其中包含比平常更多的“噪音”，更有可能導致波動加劇。

去除數(shù)據(jù)中的“噪音”

一月通常是失業(yè)較多的月份。隨著假期結(jié)束，季節(jié)性臨時工被解僱，而其他公司在新年開始時收緊支出。富國銀行高級經(jīng)濟學家莎拉·豪斯表示，這使得一月份的就業(yè)報告成為最難預(yù)測的報告之一。她指出：

「在這個最具季節(jié)性的月份，我們將會有新的季節(jié)性調(diào)整因素。季節(jié)性變化使得預(yù)測變得非常困難，而且就業(yè)市場剛剛經(jīng)歷了比平常更溫暖的12月，這可能在一定程度上支撐了當月的招募活動?！?/p>

為了更好地觀察這段時期和其他月份的基本趨勢，美國勞工統(tǒng)計局使用每年一月更新的季節(jié)性調(diào)整因子來平滑數(shù)據(jù)。

安永高級經(jīng)濟學家布蘇爾寫道，整體而言，數(shù)據(jù)有可能出乎意料地樂觀。她指出，安永預(yù)計 1 月將創(chuàng)造 275,000 個新就業(yè)機會。

週五的就業(yè)報告還將包括基於截至 2023 年 3 月底過去 12 個月薪資數(shù)據(jù)的最終年度基準評估。初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國就業(yè)成長弱於先前估計，損失了 306,000 個工作崗位（相當於每月減少約25,000 個工作機會）。 「我們預(yù)計最終修訂版將非常接近初步修訂版，」布蘇爾寫道。

另外，美國勞工統(tǒng)計局也根據(jù)新的人口估計修改了家庭調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)（構(gòu)成就業(yè)報告的兩項調(diào)查之一）。這些修正可能會導致某些勞動市場數(shù)據(jù)的連續(xù)表現(xiàn)出現(xiàn)偏差。

大規(guī)模裁員可能動搖就業(yè)市場表現(xiàn)

Large-scale layoffs have occurred frequently recently, with layoffs in the technology, media and transportation industries dominating the headlines. This raises concerns about whether these signs portend overall instability in the labor market.

However, Glassdoor chief economist Daniel Zhao said that at present, these layoffs appear to be relatively isolated and have not affected the entire economy. He pointed out that the layoffs in the technology industry seem to be a continuation of last year's "Year of Efficiency Improvement" slogan. These companies are more streamlined and optimized rather than layoffs due to financial conditions. "Some of these layoffs aimed at improving efficiency are not It will definitely trigger spillover effects on the overall economy.”

The data also supports this view. As of December, the number of monthly layoffs and their share of total employment remained well below pre-pandemic averages, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Additionally, Wells Fargo's Sara noted that filings warning of large-scale layoffs or factory closures have not increased year over year. "The reduction in such warnings means that unless demand deteriorates sharply, there will not be an increase in layoffs in the short term."

Still, in a changing labor market, businesses must manage their headcount more carefully. Specifically, the number of employees voluntarily leaving their jobs has significantly decreased. JOLTS data shows that the current voluntary turnover rate has fallen to its lowest level since the fall of 2020. The hiring boom in recent years has also leveled off, with fewer open positions and smaller pay raises for job-hopping. According to payroll processor ADP, the median salary increase received by job-hopping workers in January was 7.2%, which was the lowest since May 2021.

“With the sharp slowdown in the rate at which people are voluntarily leaving their jobs, many companies have been caught off guard and thought they could manage their workforce through attrition, only to find that the attrition dynamics have changed significantly,” House said.

January layoffs hit highest since 2009

U.S. employers announced 82,307 layoffs in January, a 20% decrease from 102,943 in January last year, according to a report released early Thursday by U.S. employment information company Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

However, company data shows that if January 2023 data is excluded, the number of layoffs in January this year is the highest level seen in January since 2009. Andrew Challenger, the company's senior vice president, said in a statement:

"Stable prices and expectations of interest rate cuts have shaped the economic environment in 2024. At the same time, this is an election year, and companies are beginning to plan ahead for policy changes that may affect their industries. However, behind the wave of layoffs are also affected by macroeconomic trends and various industries. Driven by multiple factors such as the strategic shift in industrial automation and the accelerated development of AI technology, although most companies will cite cost cutting as the main reason when explaining the reasons for layoffs."

Last month's layoff statistics show that the main reason for layoffs is the "reorganization" of enterprises (involving 28,329 people), followed by "bankruptcy" (14,555 people) and market and economic conditions (7,559 people). . In addition, the report pointed out that 381 layoffs last month were due to the development of artificial intelligence.

Initial jobless claims, another important indicator of layoff activity, are still below pre-pandemic levels, but unexpectedly rose according to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday. Specifically, in the week ending January 27, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 90 million, bringing the total to 224,000. The number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits also climbed to 1.898 million, which is the highest point since mid-November last year. The increase in the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits implies that it is becoming more difficult for the unemployed to re-employ.

However, another data shows that the company's production efficiency has improved by the end of 2023. According to a report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, in the fourth quarter of last year, U.S. employee work productivity increased by 3.2%. Although it slowed down from 4.9% in the third quarter of last year, it still exceeded the estimate of 2.1%. . Higher productivity could help reduce inflationary pressures.

Potential "weak spots"

In 2023, the key word for the U.S. labor market is "resilience."

According to unseasonally adjusted data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, nearly 2.9 million new jobs were created in the United States by the end of 2023. Excluding possible future revisions, total job growth last year ranked 21st in U.S. history going back to 1939.

This did not turn out as originally expected. After all, the economy was expected to be hit hard and slip into recession amid the most aggressive monetary policy actions of the past few decades.

However, the actual situation is that employment growth has slowed down but remains strong; although wage growth has slowed moderately, people's wages are finally no longer completely eroded by inflation; and consumer spending is still strong, and the overall economy is growing The situation also remains stable.

KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk said in an interview with foreign media:

“For the Fed, what was originally the most difficult leg of the marathon to fight inflation has turned into a relay race. The impetus for job growth has shifted from industries that are extremely sensitive to interest rate changes in driving the economy out of recession to those that are extremely sensitive to interest rate changes. A less sensitive industry.”

However, the United States is not completely out of trouble yet.

The main drivers of job growth in recent months have been health care, leisure and hospitality, and the public sector, while hiring activity has tapered off in most other industries. Swank noted:

"Given that growth over the past six months (excluding January) has been concentrated in three sectors, the situation is more fragile now than a year ago. We have seen potential risks in these sectors, with October being a prime example."

Article forwarded from: Golden Ten Data