如果這次也繼續(xù)出現(xiàn)之前週期中出現(xiàn)的相同模式，那麼專家就何時(shí)可能出現(xiàn)比特幣牛市的下一個(gè)高點(diǎn)提供了解釋。
比特幣之前的周期表明，牛市頂部就是這種情況。
分析師 Ali 撰寫(xiě)了一篇關(guān)於 X 的新文章，其中討論了比特幣最近兩次牛市相互關(guān)聯(lián)的方式，以及這可能對(duì)當(dāng)前加密貨幣週期產(chǎn)生的影響。
為了進(jìn)行比較，分析師參考了一張圖表，該圖表說(shuō)明了每個(gè)週期中的價(jià)格變動(dòng)，其中週期底部是所有週期的起點(diǎn)。
根據(jù)該圖，很明顯，比特幣最近兩次牛市的峰值發(fā)生在各自周期底部以來(lái)的大約同一時(shí)間段。
已確定當(dāng)前週期的底部將是 2022 年 FTX 崩盤(pán)後出現(xiàn)的低點(diǎn)。如果當(dāng)前週期與從該底部開(kāi)始的前兩個(gè)週期一致，那麼它仍然有大約600 天，直到達(dá)到與最近一對(duì)牛市達(dá)到最高點(diǎn)時(shí)相同的位置。
Ali 補(bǔ)充道：“預(yù)測(cè)表明，下一個(gè)市場(chǎng)高峰可能會(huì)在 2025 年 10 月左右到來(lái)?！? 「如果比特幣從各自的市場(chǎng)底部反映了之前的牛市（2015-2018 年和 2018-2022 年），那麼下一個(gè)市場(chǎng)高峰可能會(huì)在那個(gè)時(shí)候到來(lái)?！? 由此看來(lái)，比特幣還有600天的正面動(dòng)能！
比特幣有可能跌破歷史線。 近來(lái)
比特幣的短期價(jià)格走勢(shì)令投資者感到不快，自現(xiàn)貨ETF獲得美國(guó)證券交易委員會(huì)（SEC）許可以來(lái)，該加密貨幣已大幅下滑。 儘管事實(shí)上比特幣從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看可能有一個(gè)有利的前景。
在以某種方式回到目前交易的 40,000 美元水平附近之前，加密貨幣甚至跌至早些時(shí)候交易的 38,500 美元大關(guān)。
在最近的下跌過(guò)程中，比特幣危險(xiǎn)地接近重新測(cè)試“短期持有者實(shí)現(xiàn)的價(jià)格”，這一水平對(duì)於該資產(chǎn)的整個(gè)存在至關(guān)重要。
The term "realized price" refers to a statistic that is used to monitor the price at which the typical investor in the Bitcoin market purchased their coins. The fact that the current price is higher than this number naturally indicates that the average holder in the sector is making a profit, whilst the fact that it is lower than the line indicates that losses are the predominant form of holdings.
According to what Ali has said in another post on X, the "short-term holder" group will find themselves in a position where they are losing money if the price of the cryptocurrency falls below the 35,130 mark.
Short-term holders, often known as STHs, are investors in Bitcoin who have acquired their coins within the last 155 days after the first purchase. The price that they have really achieved is now at the level of $38,125. When this line has been broken repeatedly in the past, it has often indicated that the coin would remain below it for a longer period of time.
Bitcoin has been able to avoid a retest of this level up to this point; but, if the present drop continues, it may even be able to break through it. The expert notes that "this potential BTC dip might trigger a new wave of panic selling as these holders will seek to minimize losses," and that there might be a new wave of selling.
