在經(jīng)歷了 2022 年加密貨幣寒冬和 2023 年經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷之後，2024 年比特幣減半時(shí)間表變得至關(guān)重要。透過限制比特幣的創(chuàng)造，它逐漸限制了比特幣的供應(yīng)，類似於黃金的稀缺性。
比特幣的總供應(yīng)量上限為 2,100 萬枚，已開採(cǎi)略多於 1,900 萬枚。這使得剩下的比特幣數(shù)量接近 200 萬個(gè)。以下是 2024 年 4 月比特幣減半的預(yù)期。
冬天過去了嗎？
比特幣在 2023 年經(jīng)歷了大幅上漲，全年漲幅約為 152%。這次飆升是在 2022 年經(jīng)歷了一段動(dòng)盪時(shí)期之後發(fā)生的，在此期間，比特幣在 2021 年創(chuàng)下歷史新高後，面臨著著名項(xiàng)目崩潰、流動(dòng)性問題和幾起引人注目的破產(chǎn)等挑戰(zhàn)。
最近加密貨幣價(jià)格的上漲使企業(yè)擺脫了停滯狀態(tài)，促使礦業(yè)公司在比特幣減半事件之前加速獲利。隨著下一次減半的臨近，生產(chǎn)比特幣的獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)將減半，促使礦工爭(zhēng)先恐後地尋求利潤(rùn)。
它是如何運(yùn)作的？
比特幣挖礦涉及使用計(jì)算工作驗(yàn)證新交易並將其添加到區(qū)塊中的獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)過程。礦工確保區(qū)塊鏈帳本的一致性、貨幣性和不變性，並獲得新創(chuàng)建的代幣作為回報(bào)。
比特幣於 2009 年問世，為礦工提供了每個(gè)區(qū)塊 50 比特幣的獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)。 2012 年 11 月，比特幣減半至每個(gè)區(qū)塊 25 個(gè)比特幣，稱為第二個(gè)獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)時(shí)代。比特幣每 210,000 個(gè)區(qū)塊就會(huì)減半，從而將提供給礦工的獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)減少一半。這些事件被編程為管理比特幣的供需動(dòng)態(tài)，與其預(yù)先編程的功能一致。
獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)減少帶來了財(cái)務(wù)挑戰(zhàn)，特別是對(duì)於那些嚴(yán)重依賴挖礦收入的人來說。比特幣的固定供應(yīng)加劇了這個(gè)問題，如果獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)減少而交易費(fèi)用或比特幣價(jià)值沒有相應(yīng)增加，則可能導(dǎo)致破產(chǎn)。此外，挖礦競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的加劇造成了稀缺性，並推高了比特幣價(jià)格，但挖礦利潤(rùn)卻降低了。
礦工兌現(xiàn)
比特幣的哈希率（衡量挖礦所需的運(yùn)算能力）已飆升至歷史最高水準(zhǔn)。這表明礦工正在利用越來越重要的資源來解決複雜的數(shù)學(xué)難題並賺取比特幣。
算力的歷史數(shù)據(jù)表明，礦商往往會(huì)增加資本支出，以在減半之前保持競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。這種比特幣熱潮導(dǎo)致活動(dòng)前幾個(gè)月的挖礦難度增加。因此，無法跟上更高生產(chǎn)成本的礦商被迫退出市場(chǎng)。
According to Grayscale, in Q4, 2023, there was a noticeable trend of miners selling their Bitcoin holdings on-chain, likely to build liquidity ahead of the reduction in block rewards. These measures suggest that Bitcoin miners are well-equipped to handle the upcoming challenges, at least in the short term.
Even if some miners exit the market, the resulting decrease in hashrate could lead to adjustments in mining difficulty, potentially reducing the cost per coin for remaining miners and maintaining the network's stability.
Historically, Bitcoin prices have surged following halving events. After the first halving in 2012, the price skyrocketed from $12 to $126 within six months. Similarly, following the second halving in 2016, Bitcoin's price surged from $654 to $1,000 within seven months. In 2020, after the third halving, the price surged from $8,570 to $18,040 in the same time period.
While initial apprehension may prompt some investors to sell off their Bitcoin holdings, renewed interest in the currency is expected to follow. The law of supply and demand will likely stabilize the market, potentially leading to a rebound in Bitcoin prices after an initial drop.
A recentstudyby Coinbase highlights the rising institutional interest in crypto assets, signaling a shift toward more mature market behavior. This trend is characterized by decreasing volatility and a rising inclination toward sophisticated investment strategies. This transition signifies a new era in crypto investment, with institutional players moving beyond mere speculation toward adopting strategic, long-term positions.
As Grayscale points out, the upcoming Bitcoin halving in April 2024 is anticipated to differ significantly from previous events due to increased on-chain activity and positive market updates. Factors shaping this event include:
Miners' proactive measures to raise funds, such as equity offerings and reserve sales, may help offset revenue challenges.
Potential adjustments in mining difficulty, driven by changes in hashrate, could benefit remaining miners by reducing production costs.
The rise of Inscriptions has boosted on-chain activity, with millions of token collectibles generating substantial transaction fees for miners.
Inscription activity offers a new avenue to maintain network security through increased transaction fees as block rewards decrease.
The ongoing adoption of Bitcoin ETFs may absorb selling pressure and positively impact Bitcoin's market structure by providing a stable demand source.
The latter might be a significant factor. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have quickly absorbed significant investment, with initial net flows totaling about $1.5 billion in the first 15 trading days. These inflows, equivalent to three months' worth of potential post-halving sell pressure, hint at the potential for mainstream adoption.
Angel investor Anthony Pompliano suggested that the recent milestone of $50,000 for Bitcoin is not its ultimate peak because of Wall Street interest. He suggested that as Bitcoin continues to climb, individual holders will begin to sell their BTC, leading to increased demand from Wall Street funds eager to capitalize on the cryptocurrency's upward trajectory.
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen elaborated that the early halving-year pattern for Bitcoin typically sees it hitting the bull market support band (comprising the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA) in January or February of the halving year.
#Bitcoin early halving year pattern -Bitcoin has always gone to the bull market support band (20W SMA and 21W EMA) in Jan/Feb of the halving year.Will this time be different? pic.twitter.com/SgE2PjtCZ9
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) January 17, 2024
Bitcoin has defied bearish market conditions, showcasing remarkable resilience and evolution over the past year. Despite challenges, it has surged in on-chain activity, strengthened its market structure and emphasized its scarcity, challenging outdated perceptions and emerging stronger than ever.
$BTC #BTC #Write2Earn #TrendingTopic #Halving
