經過多年的拒絕，比特幣（BTC）交易所交易基金（ETF）終於在上週開始交易。

投機者預計這起事件將推高比特幣的價格，但這並沒有發生。

CryptoSlate 研究和數據分析師 James Van Straten 表示，這導致總銷售額約 47 億美元

一直處於「極度貪婪」狀態的加密貨幣恐懼與貪婪指數最近為 76 分，現已跌至中性 52 分。這是一個積極的信號，因為它表明大部分泡沫可能已脫離系統。

隨著「拋售訊息」事件的結束，交易者可能會關注宏觀經濟數據。

所有人的目光都集中在美國聯邦儲備委員會上，根據芝加哥商品交易所集團的 FedWatch 工具數據，預計聯準會最快將於 3 月開始降息。

如果發生這種情況，風險資產可能會表現良好。

比特幣和山寨幣的調整結束了嗎？

主要加密貨幣能否在短期內恢復上漲趨勢？

讓我們分析一下圖表來找出答案。

標普 500 指數價格分析

1 月 8 日，標普 500 指數 (SPX) 從 20 日指數移動平均線 (4,727) 回升，顯示上升趨勢依然完好，交易員將逢低視為買入機會。

SPX 日線圖。

來源：

向上傾斜的移動平均線表示買家佔上風，但相對強弱指數（RSI）的負背離值得謹慎對待。

如果該數值維持在4,800點之上，該指數可能會升至5,000點的重要心理水準。

下檔方面，20 日均線是第一個值得關注的支撐位。

如果該水平回落，則表示購買壓力正在減輕。

隨後該指數可能會跌至50日簡單移動平均線（4,601）。

美元指數價格分析

過去幾天，美元指數 (DXY) 一直在 20 日均線 (102) 附近的下跌趨勢中盤整。

DXY 日線圖。

來源：

持平的 20 日均線和 RSI 接近中點，無論多頭或空頭都沒有明顯的優勢。

如果價格維持在 20 日均線下方，空頭將試圖將指數拉至 101 的關鍵支撐位。

從好的方面來看，多頭可能會面臨 50 日移動平均線 (103) 的拋售。

突破並收盤於 50 日移動平均線之上將表明將開始更強勁的復甦至 104.50。

該水平可能會再次見證空頭的強勁拋售。

比特幣價格分析

1 月 14 日，比特幣突破並收在支撐線下方，顯示空頭正試圖捲土重來。

BTC/USDT 日線圖。

來源：

20 日均線（43,693 美元）已開始下跌，RSI 接近 46，顯示空頭略有優勢。

Any recovery attempt is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA. If the price turns down from the overhead resistance, it will signal a shift in the sentiment from buying on dips to selling on rallies. The BTC/USDT pair may fall to $40,000 and later to $37,980.

Contrary to this assumption, if buyers overcome the barrier at $44,700, it will suggest that the corrective phase may be over. The pair will then try to reach the psychologically important level of $50,000.

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) is correcting in an uptrend with the bulls trying to keep the price above the immediate support at $2,458.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($2,398) and the RSI in the positive zone indicate that the bulls are in command. If the price turns up from the current level or rebounds off $2,400, it will signal strong buying on dips. The ETH/USDT pair may then rally to $2,717. If this level is scaled, the next stop could be $3,000.

This positive view will be negated in the near term if the price continues lower and plunges below $2,400. That could sink the pair to the 50-day SMA ($2,282) and eventually to $2,100.

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) dipped below the 20-day EMA ($301) on Jan. 12, but the bears could not sustain the price below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $291.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

That started a relief rally, which picked up momentum on Jan. 15. If buyers hold the price above $317, the BNB/USDT pair could rise to $338 and thereafter dash to $350. The $350 level is likely to attract strong selling by the bears, but if bulls overcome this barrier, the pair may soar to $400.

The important level to watch on the downside is $291 because a slump below it could tug the price to the neckline.

XRP price analysis

Attempts by the bulls to start a recovery in XRP (XRP) stalled near the downtrend line on Jan. 11, suggesting that the bears remain in control.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.59) and the RSI below 43 suggest that the path of least resistance is to the downside. The selling could accelerate if the price plummets below the $0.56 support. That will clear the path for a drop to $0.50 and then to $0.46.

If buyers want to prevent the decline, they will have to shove the XRP/USDT pair above the downtrend line. That will invalidate the bearish pattern and start a relief rally to $0.67 and eventually to $0.74.

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) returned from the downtrend line on Jan. 14, indicating that the bears are vigorously protecting the level.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($96) has flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint, signaling a balance between supply and demand. If the price skids below the uptrend line, the SOL/USDT pair may tumble to $67.

Alternatively, if the price rises above the downtrend line, it will suggest that the correction may be over. The pair could then travel to $117 and later to $126. Buyers will have to clear this hurdle to signal the resumption of the uptrend.

Cardano price analysis

Cardano (ADA) has been falling inside a descending channel pattern for several days, but a minor positive is that the bulls have maintained the price above the breakout level of $0.46.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If buyers kick the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.55), the ADA/USDT pair could climb to the downtrend line of the channel. A break and close above the channel will indicate that the downtrend could be over. The pair may then surge to the overhead resistance at $0.68.

Contrarily, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears continue to sell on rallies. That will increase the likelihood of the pair dropping to the support line of the channel, where the buyers are likely to step in.

Avalanche price analysis

Avalanche (AVAX) has been trading below the breakdown level of $38 since Jan. 12, but the bears have failed to sink the price to the strong support at $31.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($37.32) is gradually sloping down, and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a slight advantage to the sellers. If the 50-day SMA ($35.68) support gives way, the AVAX/USDT pair may retest the $31 support. A strong bounce off this level may keep the pair rangebound between $31 and $43.50 for some time.

The next trending move is likely to begin after buyers drive the price above $43.50 or bears pull the pair below the crucial support at $31.

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been sustaining below the 20-day EMA ($0.08) for the past few days, but the bears have failed to sink the price to $0.07.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative territory indicate an advantage to sellers. If the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, the bears will again try to sink the DOGE/USDT pair to $0.07.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears are losing their grip. Buyers will then try to propel the pair to the stiff overhead resistance zone between $0.10 and $0.11.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.