比特幣大約每四年發(fā)生一次，即將到來的減半事件似乎再次激起了全球投資者的興趣。
這是因為開採加密貨幣的區(qū)塊獎勵將削減一半，從而有效地降低了新比特幣的生成和引入流通的速度。 這種機(jī)制是比特幣通貨緊縮經(jīng)濟(jì)模型的核心，旨在將比特幣的總供應(yīng)量限制在 2,100 萬個。
從歷史上看，減半對比特幣的價格和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場產(chǎn)生了重大影響。 2012 年第一次比特幣減半將區(qū)塊獎勵從50 個比特幣大幅削減至25 個比特幣，隨後在2016 年和2020 年又進(jìn)行了減半，進(jìn)一步將獎勵分別降至12.5 個和6.25 個比特幣。
雖然這些事件傳統(tǒng)上會導(dǎo)致市場興趣增加和價格大幅上漲，但圍繞其環(huán)境影響的對話也越來越多。
減少採礦獎勵引發(fā)了有關(guān)採礦業(yè)可持續(xù)性的問題，特別是在收益遞減的情況下，它如何促使人們轉(zhuǎn)向更環(huán)保、更節(jié)能的技術(shù)。 這些變化對於比特幣的長期生存至關(guān)重要，特別是當(dāng)環(huán)境問題與經(jīng)濟(jì)因素一樣成為討論的核心時。
比特幣能源消耗問題
比特幣挖礦獎勵減半放大了圍繞加密貨幣本已很高的能源消耗的討論，特別是因為其相關(guān)的計算過程消耗大量主要來自化石燃料的電力。
批評者進(jìn)一步指出，如果採礦獎勵的減少導(dǎo)致更多的能源密集型做法來維持礦工的盈利能力，這可能會加劇比特幣的碳足跡，從而與聯(lián)合國的許多全球永續(xù)發(fā)展目標(biāo)相衝突。
並非所有人都相信減半會導(dǎo)致能源消耗增加。
基於比特幣的去中心化金融（DeFi）平臺 Velar 聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人兼首席策略長 Aarvind Sathyanandam 告訴 Cointelegraph，該事件將主要影響比特幣網(wǎng)路上向礦工發(fā)放的區(qū)塊獎勵，而不是其能源消耗。
此外，他表示，採礦收入的減少可能會激勵效率較低的礦工使用舊設(shè)備升級到更新、更節(jié)能的型號以維持盈利能力：
“The halving will increase operating costs for miners if the BTC’s value or transaction fee revenue does not rise to compensate them. This could force some miners with slim margins to suspend operations. However, efficient miners will upgrade to advanced ASIC rigs that maximize productivity and minimize energy overhead. The latest mining gear tends to be far more energy efficient in terms of hashes per watt.”
Sathyanandam said that while the halving may contribute to a short-term drop in energy use if unprofitable miners go offline, broader industry incentives around efficiency and innovation could drive continued improvements around energy.
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“Bitcoin’s self-balancing ecosystem has always rewarded miners who evolve with the best hardware and newest efficiencies. So in the longer term, the halving is likely to accelerate advancement and the shift toward cleaner solutions for securing the network,” he said.
Andrey Stoychev, head of prime brokerage for crypto lending platform Nexo, sees one of two scenarios playing out after the halving.
In the first scenario, the recent strong demand for Bitcoin could continue on the back of decreasing supply, leaving little to no way for mining operators to stay in business unless there is an even stronger price appreciation.
The second course of action is for the Bitcoin miners to invest in more advanced and productive equipment that counters the decreased payout from maintaining the Bitcoin network.
Stoychev told Cointelegraph, “Judging by the number of new addresses and transaction count, energy consumption is unlikely to go down post-halving with all that activity.”
A spokesperson for cryptocurrency exchange Bittrue told Cointelegraph that, on the one hand, a reduction in mining rewards might lead to a decrease in energy consumption, but on the flip side, it might also spur energy use as miners may seek to maintain profitability by upgrading to more powerful, potentially more energy-intensive equipment: “The upgrade could increase energy consumption, especially if miners prioritize computational power over energy efficiency.”
Can the halving lead to more sustainable mining practices?
The Bitcoin mining community has continually made claims about the industry’s ability to enhance renewable energy development. Similarly, could the Bitcoin halving help miners become more energy efficient?
According to James Wo, CEO and founder of DFG — a Web3-focused investment firm — energy expenses make up a large part of mining costs, creating a strong motivation to enhance energy efficiency or switch to more affordable and sustainable sources like solar, hydro and geothermal power. He added:
“This transition could promote more sustainable mining methods, but the speed and scope of this shift will hinge on factors such as the availability of renewable energy sources, technological advancements in mining equipment and changes in energy prices.”
On a similar note, Sathyanandan stated that the halving could catalyze a shift toward more sustainable mining practices over time, saying that many miners are already looking in this direction, highlighting recent data that shows over 50% of Bitcoin’s energy mix is already coming from renewables.
“The post-halving pressure could push this figure far higher. Transitioning just another 10-30% more of global mining to renewables could completely decarbonize the Bitcoin network. And while miners will migrate to the lowest cost power due to the halving regardless of source, renewables appear primed to begin drastically undercutting fossil fuel energy economically,” he said
Stoychev firmly believes that the only way for miners to remain operational is to adapt to the new economic realities that the halving will bring. Speculating on how things might pan out in the near term, he believes a major consolidation may take place, where smaller mining operations may be acquired by established industry giants — a sign of maturation, he believes.
“In this day and age, where technological advances are taken for granted, there is no doubt that more efficient mining equipment will make its way into the industry. As far as renewable energy sources are concerned, albeit challenging, they may be the most logical future for Bitcoin,” he said.
Green mining might be the only way forward
As large-scale corporate entities continue to showcase their interest in Bitcoin in different ways, it stands to reason that in the future, firms may want exposure to this burgeoning asset class while also requiring clearer sustainability roadmaps to satisfy their stakeholders.
This, in Sathyanandan’s view, will motivate more miners to participate in carbon offset programs and invest directly into technologies or sites running fully on renewables. “Prioritizing eco-friendly practices allows publicly listed miners and enterprise farms to tap into this class of institutional investment dollars,” he added.
Furthermore, he believes that while miners will still continue to chase profits, the halving will refocus incentives around cheap electricity at scale. The transition toward post-halving green mining is imminent when coupled with surging corporate and institutional climate priorities. “Renewables appear destined to become Bitcoin’s energy backbone long-term, with 2024 halving potentially the tipping point toward mass sustainability initiatives,” he said.
Robby Greenfield IV, co-founder and CEO at Umoja Labs — a Web3 development studio — told Cointelegraph that while some other analysts may be divided as to how the Bitcoin halving will impact global energy consumption levels, in his view, the event will only increase power consumption, leading to increased miner centralization.
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儘管如此，他相信較大的公司將繼續(xù)尋找永續(xù)能源（例如太陽能），以最大限度地減少長期增加的成本。 然而，在格林菲爾德看來，這一切都取決於這些礦業(yè)實體是否有能力做到這一點。
其他需要考慮的因素
隨著減半的臨近，Bittrue 的研究團(tuán)隊認(rèn)為，我們可能會看到的另一個影響是全球礦工的地理分佈不斷擴(kuò)大。 在他們看來，這些個人和實體的分佈可能會發(fā)生重大變化，因為世界上許多地區(qū)——尤其是東歐和非洲——提供豐富且廉價的可再生能源。 該團(tuán)隊補(bǔ)充道：“這可能會對這些地區(qū)的能源市場和監(jiān)管框架產(chǎn)生影響?！?/p>
最後，比特幣相關(guān)技術(shù)的進(jìn)步，例如閃電網(wǎng)路支付的集成，可能會進(jìn)一步對能源消耗和可持續(xù)性的動態(tài)產(chǎn)生積極影響，因為第2 層解決方案允許交易在鏈下進(jìn)行，從而減少對高成本的需求。計算能力。
