No matter how you look at it, it doesn’t look like bargain hunting now.The market is a bit too optimistic. Is empirical theory invalid in this bull market? Did you change the banker behind your back?In the past month, ETF has bought a total of more than 30,000 BTC, which is more than one billion US dollars. The minimum is 1 million, and the maximum is several million. How far is it from controlling the market? They really started to buy. ?Looking at Bitcoin before and after the halving, it will fluctuate up and down, with sharp rises and plummets, reducing the chips for building positions in the bull market and increasing the chips before the bull market trend is clear. The mainstream Wall Street institutions that entered this year cost more than 30,000 yuan to build a position, and the cost of ETFs is even higher. They only bought it symbolically, and let Grayscale slowly ship the goods and let you finish it.It is possible that there will be a sudden surge around the Spring Festival. Then spring begins in the United States, consumption declines significantly, inflation continues, and in conjunction with macroeconomic announcements of another interest rate hike or cut, institutions will deliberately take advantage of the small accidents in the U.S. economy to drive down the price of Bitcoin.Before and after the halving, there was another wave of shock and decline, maybe a sharp drop that scared retail investors to death, but the bottom range was visually estimated to be between US$28,000 and US$35,000, or even lower, but not lower than US$22,000. This is the cooperation of behavioral economics and US macroeconomics. Mainstream Wall Street institutions have begun to invest in Bitcoin. They do not engage in mischief before the bull market starts, harvest retail investors, and collect more chips. This is contrary to the bloodthirsty nature of hedge funds.Their toolbox is vast, their tools for bullish news and their ability to influence the market are unparalleled. Retail investors in the bull market are the real fat leeks. Be careful. These trading experiences are all proven by my actual use of real money. The above ups and downs may not happen, but we should be prepared for danger.What if it happens? Is it likely to happen?I don’t deny that it will definitely rise sharply in the medium and long term, and it is also a bull market!Going back to the beginning, I don’t think it’s like when I was buying the bottom, the market was booming and everything was good!Whether this is actually the case is worth pondering!