回顧我過去對未來的預(yù)測，很明顯我的專欄代表了許多一廂情願(yuàn)的想法。

就像奧斯卡王爾德曾經(jīng)說過的，除了誘惑他可以抵抗任何事情，我可以預(yù)測任何事情，只要不是關(guān)於未來的事情。

儘管我對某一年會發(fā)生什麼的判斷經(jīng)常是錯(cuò)誤的，但我確實(shí)認(rèn)為我的一些主要預(yù)測在方向上是正確的。

我也不甘於當(dāng)旁觀者。

我正在建立區(qū)塊鏈業(yè)務(wù)和技術(shù)，其明確目的是影響未來的道路。

這篇文章是 CoinDesk 的「Crypto 2024」預(yù)測套件的一部分。

Paul Brody 是安永全球區(qū)塊鏈負(fù)責(zé)人兼 CoinDesk 專欄作家。

我正在努力建構(gòu)的未來是建立在公共以太坊生態(tài)系統(tǒng)之上的，具有強(qiáng)大的、符合監(jiān)管要求的商業(yè)交易和有意義的隱私保護(hù)。

在這種開放、審查和抗壟斷的模型中，我們可以建立一個(gè)通用的業(yè)務(wù)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，使業(yè)務(wù)互動(dòng)成為簡單、可擴(kuò)展且可靠的體驗(yàn)。

在未來的願(yuàn)景中，金融服務(wù)很容易整合並服務(wù)於其預(yù)期目的：將資本輸送到從新創(chuàng)公司到綠色能源專案的有用專案。

這裡的道路比我想要的要慢得多，但進(jìn)步是真實(shí)的。

我在這個(gè)領(lǐng)域工作了 10 年，其中 8 個(gè)在安永擔(dān)任這個(gè)職位，我們看到企業(yè)擁抱代幣化，以太坊已經(jīng)成為全球標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，許可鏈的時(shí)尚雖然沒有消亡，但正在慢慢褪色。

企業(yè)也接受了法定貨幣和加密貨幣，生態(tài)系統(tǒng)已在很大程度上克服了 L2 的可擴(kuò)展性挑戰(zhàn)。

我們在利用零知識工具和應(yīng)用程式解決隱私挑戰(zhàn)的道路上也取得了顯著的進(jìn)展。

像往常一樣，大部分的進(jìn)展都是在加密貨幣冬天的黑暗時(shí)期取得。

我們還沒有走出冬天，但我希望我們離冬天不遠(yuǎn)了。

事實(shí)上，我認(rèn)為從 2024 年 6 月開始在歐洲逐步實(shí)施加密資產(chǎn)市場 (MiCA)，這是我們邁向下一個(gè)區(qū)塊鏈夏季之路上的一個(gè)重要里程碑。

我對即將到來的夏天有三個(gè)希望，我稱之為「預(yù)測」。

永續(xù)夏季

首先，事實(shí)證明今年夏天更具可持續(xù)性。

雖然宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變化肯定影響了之前的區(qū)塊鏈夏季，但我相信其他問題產(chǎn)生了更大的影響，包括以太坊等生態(tài)系統(tǒng)達(dá)到其容量限制並產(chǎn)生高額費(fèi)用、欺詐浪潮以及機(jī)構(gòu)資本池的限制。

This time could be different. L2s have given Ethereum vast capacity, regulators around the world are unlocking institutional capital flows such as pension funds while simultaneously giving investors greater protections from rug-pulls and frauds. These measures are still immature and there are no financial ecosystems without fraud and risk, but in the next summer Ethereum and crypto will look and feel much closer to the rest of the financial ecosystem.

Convergence of stablecoins and CBDCs

My second prediction is that we will start to see the world's central banks start to converge upon both regulated stablecoins and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) as the preferred approach to implementing CBDCs. This won't be a result of regulators suddenly embracing decentralization and individual control. It will just be a practical choice.

Nearly all CBDC plans today are connected to tokenized, but centralized systems ??almost none of which plan for real programmability. As a result, central banks are finding that while CBDC prototypes and pilots do work, technically, their "value-add" over existing Real Time Gross Settlement systems is quite limited.

None of the ways to "fix" these shortcomings look very appealing. For central banks to build fully programmable and open systems on a par with Ethereum, seems like a monumental technical challenge and deploying a single national coin onto a public network invites potential hacking risks.

Read more: Paul Brody - Under the Hood, 2023 Was a Highly Constructive Year for Crypto

There will be some cases where public sector managed CBDCs will go ahead and have compelling value propositions. I believe these will be most gripping in countries that have not yet implemented national real-time payments (there aren't many) or those where governments want to see more intense (and low cost) competition in the consumer payments space. The global consumer payments market is highly consolidated and, in many countries like the U.S. and Canada, payment fees look remarkably high compared to low-cost leaders such as Australia.

Despite these challenges and the lack of a clear value proposition, many central banks seem determined to deploy both retail and wholesale CBDCs. I confess I don’t understand what is driving this push, but am coming to suspect that the push towards CBDCs has more to do with gaining additional power and control over the financial system, than as something that really solves a major problem.

Even with a CBDC, I believe regulated stablecoins are coming as well. CBDCs won’t “quench” the demand for blockchain-based programmable money that can be used in DeFi services or for digital asset purchases.

Industrial applications progress

最後，希望看到工業(yè)應(yīng)用不斷進(jìn)步。

這是你能得到的最慢、最無聊的進(jìn)展，但它正在發(fā)生。

企業(yè)很容易被最近的一些加密貨幣交易所等醜聞嚇倒，但我希望，隨著記憶的褪色和解決方案的改進(jìn)，我們將看到採用的穩(wěn)定重新加速。

我不能向你保證 2024 年夏天會到來，但春天肯定已經(jīng)在空氣中。